The aviation industry headwinds are now coming to the fore in terms of passenger numbers as September closed with a traffic of 1.18 crore, down 6.5% over previous September when 1.26 crore passengers flew on domestic flights. The slide has led to the first nine months of the year seeing 12.23 crore domestic passengers, about 0.8% lower than 12.33 crore passengers which flew in the same period last year. Despite the headwinds last year, 2025 ended with better numbers than 2024 and was the best ever year for domestic aviation thus far. The October to December quarter will decide if 2026 manages to scrape past the previous year or will it be the first time since 2012 when the passenger numbers are lower than the previous year, barring the pandemic period of 2020.
The slump was led by SpiceJet which shrunk to an extent that Star Air carried more passengers than SpiceJet in September, a first for Star Air. Akasa Air continued to lead the load factors with 88.1% and IndiGo being the only other carrier which recorded more than 80% load factor. The reduced capacity in Indian skies did not push up the load factors, possibly due to the fares being higher than normal.
While SpiceJet shrunk the most, almost all carriers saw negative growth while Akasa Air saw higher departures but flattish traffic. SpiceJet operations were in disarray the entire month with 20% cancellation and On-Time performance of just 16.6% at top 10 metro airports as declared by the Indian regulator DGCA. Nearly 40% of SpiceJet flights were delayed by over two hours.
IndiGo continued its market share lead with 65.4% market share in September, closing the first nine months of the year with 65.9%. Air India group followed with 26.8% market share in September, Akasa Air at 5.6%. Star Air was the new number four at 0.7% market share, higher than SpiceJet which had only 0.6% of the domestic market. IndiGo, continued its run at the top for On Time Performance as well with 91.1% flights on time at top 10 airports in the country, while amongst the airports Chennai continued to top the performance with 95.3% departures on time, while Kochi recorded the lowest at 82.1%.
Network Thoughts
The drop in traffic was steep in September. A large part of this is definitely due to lower capacity in the market, but the lower load factors indicate that airlines have held on to fares, without discounting and are okay to let the traffic slid rather than chase traffic at the cost of yields.
The year has not been great for domestic aviation, with six out of nine months seeing lower traffic than 2025. What is more worrying is that the last three months seeing fewer passengers than even 2024 for the corresponding months. At this rate, the current year will see traffic lower than 2025, a first since 2012 if it happens.
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