IndiGo, India’s largest carrier by fleet and domestic market share, had announced its big bang expansion plan for the current financial year. India was recovering from the traffic slump following the Pahalgam terrorist attack and Operation Sindoor; the IATA AGM Was being held in Delhi after 40 years and IndiGo took that opportunity to make some major announcements, which included conversion of 30 options to firm orders for the A350 and a major network expansion.
Pieter Elbers, took to the stage to announce its its plans for FY26. A summary of those plans was as below
- Domestic expansion to Adampur, Hindon, Navi Mumbai and NIA, Jewar
- International expansion
- XLR to Athens
- Re-activating Almaty and Tashkent with flights from Mumbai
- Four new destinations in CIS
- Flights to Tbilisi from Mumbai
- Addition of Siem Reap to its network
- Additional capacity to Bali
- Additional capacity to Vietnam
- Additional destination in South East Asia
What is the status?
We are less than two months away from the end of this year and for an airline which lives by its announcements, this is the best time to revisit what its announcements were and where it stands today.
Domestic
IndiGo had already announced flights to Adampur, when this announcement was made. Additionally, it launched services to Hindon as well as Navi Mumbai. The airline also launched services to Purnea. Operations to Jewar remain uncertain as the airport awaits inauguration as well as operationalisation, something beyond the control of the airline.
However, the airline did not grow as expected as it went into an operational meltdown in December. While it is recovering on the capacity front, the 10% cut ordered by the regulator will have some impact on its total capacity on the domestic side.
International
Last month, IndiGo launched flights to Athens from Mumbai and Delhi with India’s first XLR. Ironically, Aegean airlines had announced India operations before IndiGo’s announcement but never opened its flights for sale. IndiGo also added Siem Reap to its network and added capacity to Bali from Delhi and Mumbai, both with a tech stop in absence of the XLRs in the network, along with adding additional flights to Hanoi from Delhi. IndiGo operationalised Almaty and Tashkent with flights from Mumbai, along with flights to Tbilisi from Mumbai.
The Central Asian expansion has gone on a backburner for the airline. Four new destinations in CIS have nowhere been on the horizon. Delhi is the natural choice for flights to Central Asia, and the closure of Pakistani airspace has meant that the natural expansion point is not available. Additionally, IndiGo has also pulled out of flights from Mumbai for a temporary period as avoiding Pakistan means flying over Iran where the geopolitical situation is on the brink right now. The additional destination in South East Asia has remained off the grid thus far but the airline could well sprint a surprise in the next few weeks since it has traditionally opened flights without much lead time for South East Asia.
Network Thoughts
IndiGo, unlike other carriers, is known to stick to its announcements. From capacity guidance to new destinations, the announcements and subsequent start has been without a hitch on all occasions in the past. The airline clearly misread how long the Pakistani airspace will not be available while making the announcements in June. The airspace has been unavailable since the end of April / early May.
The next few weeks will see IndiGo take delivery of more XLRs, with at least two timed to replace the B77Ws to Istanbul, one each from Delhi and Mumbai. This will see a reduction in capacity by seats as well as ASK. When the airspace will be opened up will remain uncertain, the risk that remains over a sudden closure will make IndiGo think about its hub strategy in future.
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