Part 1 of the analysis looked at and can be found here
The second part looks at the points in Middle east where Indian carriers fly
All data is Daily departures
| Indigo | Tata Group | SpiceJet, Akasa Air | Total | |
| Dubai | 15.5 | 23.5 | 9.5 | 48.5 |
| Abu Dhabi | 8 | 7 | 15 | |
| Sharjah | 4 | 12 | 16 | |
| Ras Al Khaimah | 1.5 | 2 | 3.5 | |
| Al Ain | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||
| UAE total | 29 | 44.3 | 9.5 | 83.3 |
| Jeddah | 5 | 5 | 1.5 | 11.5 |
| Riyadh | 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | |
| Dammam | 5 | 8.5 | 13.5 | |
| Saudi Arabia total | 12 | 17 | 1.5 | 30.5 |
| Doha (Qatar) | 12 | 7 | 1 | 20 |
| Kuwait | 5.5 | 4 | 9.5 | |
| Bahrain | 1 | 2.5 | 3.5 | |
| Muscat | 3 | 8.5 | 11.5 | |
| Salalah | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||
| Oman total | 3 | 9.3 | 0 | 11.8 |
| Total | 62.5 | 84.1 | 12 | 158.6 |
1. The overwhelming favourite of Indian carriers is the Dubai region with close to 49 daily departures to the emirate. Indeed the UAE as a whole gets almost 83 daily services from India. While the bilateral seat quotas are exhausted for Dubai and Sharjah, Indian carriers are not utilising the full share of Abu Dhabi rights (India UAE flight rights are for each emirate individually and not as a collective). Ras Al Khaimah (RKT) has grown to 3 daily flights to India, possibly offering an alternative to the Dubai/Sharjah market. Air India group is the largest carrier to Dubai by way of both frequencies and seats, given Air India’s multiple 787 operations. Air India express dominates the Sharjah market while Indigo leads at Abu Dhabi. Indigo and Air India express by themselves are amongst the largest non home carriers in the UAE.
2. The next biggest destination for Indian carriers is Saudi Arabia with almost 30 departures. The biggest destination for Indian carriers is Dammam with over 13 daily flights, helped by its status as a “free port” and hence liberated from bilateral restrictions that apply elsewhere in Saudi Arabia. Jeddah on the Red Sea coast which is the farthest in the Middle East from India has nearly 12 daily flights including some close to 6 hour flights from South India and Delhi. Jeddah is also popular as a destination for “Umrah” tourism and with Saudi Arabia’s push to grow its tourism footprint, it will be interesting to see how this market evolves. Riyadh which will be the base for the newly formed Riyadh Air is a much smaller market from Indian carriers perspective
3. As a stand alone destination, Doha is the second largest market after Dubai, though totally dominated by Indigo which has a partnership with Qatar airways and codeshares on most India routes and beyond Qatar with them, similar to their partnership with Turkish Airlines. Some of these flights from the end April will be operated on 737 MAX8 aircraft rumoured to be sourced from Qatar airways. Qatar airways, like Turkish airlines, is restricted on capacity from India to Qatar and hence the partnership with Indigo is advantageous to them, allowing them to offer more seats out of India to beyond Middle East markets.
4. Indian carriers fly close to 12 daily services to Muscat, Oman, making it the fifth largest city market from India. With the reported travails of Oman air in the news, it will be interesting to see the competitive dynamics play out in this market
5. The smallest market for Indian carriers in the Middle East is the Bahrain market, indicating the relatively small origin market given the Island size and population. Jet Airways in its heyday used to run a bus connector service between Bahrain and Dammam, over the causeway, allowing for more Saudi origin and destination passengers to fly their Bahrain service
6. Indian carriers don’t offer services to a number of destinations in the Middle East like Iraq, Iran and Jordan, though their home carriers offer limited services to India, catering mostly to religious tourism. Air India does serve Tel Aviv, Israel, with 3 weekly services. The next likely destination for service from an Indian carrier is Madinah (MED) which is served currently by Hajj charters but is likely to see scheduled service. Indeed, Mumbai airports website briefly listed an Indigo service from Mumbai to Madinah in the winter schedule
7. It will be interesting to watch the expansion of Akasa air which has stated that it has rights to serve Saudi Arabia and other points in the Middle East. The Mumbai airports website might offer a sneak peak in that regard, listing an Akasa service each to Kuwait and Jeddah from Mumbai.
8. Finally, we shall watch the continuing route transfers from Air India to Air India express and the expansion of the latter, with Air India appearing to focus on relatively higher yield markets like Doha and Dubai, and Air India express being the one with the wide network from India to the gulf. Bilaterals as noted previously are likely to be the constraint for Air India Express’ growth though one can predict continued expansion into Abu Dhabi, Bahrain and Dammam given the bilateral rights situation.
That the Middle East market keeps evolving is clear given its evolution from a highly Kerala-Mumbai centric market two decades ago to one that is more dispersed given the changing nature of emigration, moving more north and eastwards from South India and in response the growth of cities like Lucknow, Amritsar and recently Bhubaneswar in this market. Of course, the Kerala market to the Middle East will remain very large as can be seen by the strength of the Malabar coast connectivity. Looking ahead, the million dollar question is when and if the government of India will sign fresh bilateral agreements with Dubai, Sharjah and Qatar for more seats. This alone will create an interesting dynamic in terms of where the Indian carriers deploy these additional seats. And finally, what will be the impact of Navi Mumbai airport on the existing Mumbai airport’s status as the hub for India-Middle east flights. Will it cannibalise or will it further cement the Mumbai region’s status as the hub for Middle East connectivity.
About the author: This guest contributor is an aviation enthusiast whose day job is in consumer goods. A frequent flyer (1300 + flights logged) and a data geek with a love for analysing airline networks and their evolution. On X (Formerly Twitter) and other platforms as @BOMLHR
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