- Operational meltdown the highlight of the quarter
- December traffic data not yet published by the regulator
IndiGo, India’s largest carrier, will announce its Q3-FY26 results on Thursday, January 22, 2026. The quarter, typically the strongest of the four, saw IndiGo face an operational meltdown in the early months which led to the airline coming to a standstill, facing regulatory enquiries, passenger ire and government intervention. IndiGo had reported a profit of INR 2448.8 crore in Q3-FY25, something which looks all but impossible to repeat.
Despite the challenges in Q1 (Apr to June), the airline had recorded a profit of INR 2176.3 crore in that quarter. The regulator DGCA has not yet released the traffic data for December, making it difficult to understand the market share as well as dip in traffic which IndiGo faced due to the weeklong fiasco, if not more.
Last quarter, the airline said it was under pressure due to foreign exchange rate and the impact the airline faces this quarter will need to be seen. Rupee traded at 88.68 to a dollar on the first day of October while it was at 89.96 to a dollar on the last day of December. In 2024, rupee traded at 85.38 to a dollar in December, a 10% drop over a year. A significant chunk of expenditure for airlines is in Dollar denominated terms which primarily includes leasing. IndiGo has a heavy dependency on operating leases and damp leases at the moment. It will take time to shift to a different model which involves a financial lease where the loans may not be dollar denominated. At the same time IndiGo continues diversification of networks where the dollar dependency is partly helped by international networks where the foreign point of sale generates foreign currency to buffer the currency shock.
Will it report a profit?
The focus boils down to just one question, will it be a profitable quarter? If the forex situation has been managed well, IndiGo will declare a profit irrespective of the chaos of early December. The subsequent fine, penalty and passenger inconvenience will have a cost but not as much to swing the airline to losses.
What also remains unknown all along is the income IndiGo gets from the grounding of Pratt & Whitney powered planes. As per its initial estimates, the groundings should have been over by now, but they are not. The airline has in the past admitted that it gets a certain amount from Pratt & Whitney as compensation but had not disclosed the amount citing contractual obligations. Since the airline adds this as part of income from operations, the exact amount is not known. An estimated 40+ aircraft remain grounded for the airline.
Network Thoughts
In the two quarters of FY26 thus far, the airline has a loss of INR 405 crores. Q3 is traditionally the time to make up for all the losses and build the war chest for Q4. Clearly this Q3 did not go as planned and IndiGo could thus see a yearly loss. Every quarter this year was a challenge, with Pahalgam terrorist attack and Operation Sindoor being the focal point of Q1, AI171 crash being the focal point of Q2 and IndiGo’s own meltdown being the focal point of Q3.
The airline will have robust revenues in the quarter, barring the seven days of disruption. The last quarter’s loss, termed as profit without forex, cannot be repeated every quarter. Eventually, the forex component is part of the whole business.
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