I am always wary of airline results on Friday evening. For two consecutive quarters, IndiGo has done that. First time they declared the highest ever quarterly profits and the second time they declared profits for Q2 after four years, turning both the occasions into happy ones. Amidst all the positive talk, a look at the daily passenger numbers shows that things may not be as great as they are made out to be.
The airline may be doing well as compared to last year and very well as compared to 2021, but those were pandemic years. A large part of 2021, for example, had capacity caps as well as fare bands in place. It took a while to gear up to 2022 with COVID still part of our lives. It was only in 2023 that the restrictions were truly off – at airports, offices, hotels and just about everywhere.
The real mapping has to be against 2019, which was pre-COVID. That year,too, had seen the fall of Jet Airways but the capacity was quickly lapped by SpiceJet and Vistara inducting former Jet Airways B737s and other carriers expediting deliveries to gain slots.
So far, 2023 has performed better than 2019. For the first ten months of 2019, the domestic air traffic stood at 11.82 crore, which has already been crossed in 2023. The worry though is on Q4 of the calendar year or the October to December quarter. The domestic industry averaged 4,14,900 passengers in the Oct-Dec quarter of 2019. October this year, averaged at 4,07,567 passengers per day. The asking rate now for November and December stands at 4,18,626 daily passengers surpassing the all-time high witnessed by the industry in 2019. November so far is below the required average.
All eyes are now on the peak travel days, this weekend for a typical outbound travel and the next one for typical inbound travel. Also to look for is if the industry can carry more passengers than 4,56,082 that were carried on April 30 this year. 2978 flights were deployed on April 30, a number which was surpassed in October in a few days but the traffic did not follow. Diwali will give a glimpse of how colourful the balance sheets would look like when the quarter ends on the last day of the year.
Wishing our readers a very happy, safe, joyous and fun filled Diwali – the festival of lights. May you and your family enjoy the festivities in a safe environment.
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