As the Indian aviation market matures, there has been a stepwise change in airline network planning based on how the market changes. One change has been adding more destinations from a metro and at the same time offering more flights from a Tier II or Tier III city where possible; the second has been to play the game of frequency over capacity and lastly add capacity. Let’s take some examples. IndiGo added flights to Gorakhpur, Prayagraj and a few other stations by sacrificing some other flights. This is maximising opportunity from the same slot. In the second case, adding frequencies on key metro routes over a period of time is well known while the third involves adding capacity wherever possible like having all Mumbai – Delhi flights operate with the A321 giving highest available capacity in the market.
Over the years, certain markets have developed into what is often referred to as “shuttle” markets where there are hourly flights or flights at regular intervals. Almost two decades ago when I actively started tracking flights and rotations, a fourth or fifth frequency between a metro by an airline would evoke shock as the only emotion. The way the Indian market has grown, an airline (and not just IndiGo, but combined Air India as well) has more frequencies today between say Delhi and Bengaluru than what the entire industry had a decade and half ago. With that context, I decided to look at which are the shuttle markets in India. With no specific definition at hand, I decided to look at routes where the daily frequency each way is 10 or more flights across airlines. I have relied on data from November and taken help from Cirium – an aviation analytics company along with flights available for booking on Google flights.
No change at the top
At 56 daily flights each way, the Delhi – Mumbai – Delhi route continues to rule the Indian skies. The surprise post November 12 is that Air India will be the capacity and frequency leader as Vistara merges with Air India. IndiGo is currently the market leader. The second spot is occupied by Delhi – Bengaluru – Delhi, while the third is occupied by Mumbai – Bengaluru – Mumbai with 261 and 227 weekly flights respectively. The three top airports by total traffic in India, have also formed the golden triangle in terms of capacity and frequency on domestic routes in India. Delhi – Hyderabad comes in next with about 27 daily flights (190 weekly departures each way).
The fifth spot is surprising with Delhi – Pune – Delhi making it there with 163 weekly flights, or 23.3 flights a day on an average. With Pune being severely slot constrained and having more departures from sunset to sunrise than during the day, this is quite an achievement. This route is ahead of other metro routes like Delhi – Kolkata – Delhi which is at sixth spot (161 weekly flights, each way), or Ahmedabad – Delhi which has 21 daily flights, while Delhi – AHmedabad has 1 flight less a day on an average. Kolkata – Bengaluru – Kolkata comes in at eighth spot. Bengaluru – Hyderabad – Bengaluru and Mumbai – Hyderabad – Mumbai complete the top 10, with 20 and 19 daily flights each way respectively.
The next 10 see a mix of metro routes along with those which see a wide seasonal variation. Numbers in brackets indicate weekly frequency.
11. Delhi – Chennai – Delhi (130)
12. Delhi – Srinagar – Delhi (128)
13. Mumbai – Ahmedabad – Mumbai (126)
13. Mumbai – Kolkata – Mumbai (126)
13. Mumbai – Chennai – Mumbai (126)
16. Bengaluru – Kochi – Bengaluru (104)
17. Hyderabad – Chennai – Hyderabad (103)
18. Bengaluru – Pune – Bengaluru (99)
19. Delhi – Guwahati – Delhi (94)
20. Delhi – Lucknow – Delhi (92)
21. Delhi – Goa Dabolim – Delhi (90)
There are another nine routes which have frequencies at 10 or over 10 a day. This lower band actually sees many routes with the same frequency. Bengaluru – Chennai – Bengaluru, Delhi – Patna – Delhi, both have 89 flights a week each way. Delhi – Amritsar – Delhi and Mumbai – Goa Dabolim – Mumbai have 84 flights a week each way; Kolkata – Guwahati – Kolkata and Hyderabad – Tirupati – Hyderabad have 74 and 72 weekly flights a week each way.
The last set of routes all have exactly 10 flights a day each way and comprise of Delhi – Bhubaneshwar – Delhi, Mumbai – Jaipur – Mumbai and Hyderabad – Kolkata – Hyderabad.
Network Thoughts
Network Planning is evolving in India and is a continuous process, like anywhere else in the world. Sometimes, it’s the competition, other times it’s the opportunity and a handful of times its the slot availability which pushes airlines to start a route.
The list today stands at 60 sectors or 30 routes. Over the next 2-3 years, the expansion of airports and addition of new airports could mean that potentially another 15 sectors may get added to these and they would touch the 10 flights per day mark. The ones which look obvious are Delhi – Varanasi, Delhi – Indore, Chennai – Madurai, Chennai – Coimbatore, Hyderabad – Vizag, along with a spate of options from Pune if and when slots open up.
The shuttle market in many ways is an indicator of the growing economy and the need for connectivity between the two cities. With Navi Mumbai opening up next year and Delhi likely to have additional capacity, the new pair of Delhi – Navi Mumbai will snag up more flights. While Noida International AIrport at Jewar also opens up, the airport does not have the same advantage which Navi Mumbai has in terms of location and connectivity.
For a new airline, now is the time to do “salami slicing” of these shuttle markets while keeping a keen eye on the next 15 or 20 to ensure that as they grow, a larger pie can be cornered at the right time.
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