In early February 2020, while the world was still debating about the flu, which was spreading in China and leading world organisations were not sure if it can transit from one person to another, Indian carriers operated their last non-stop flight to China. What followed was the world coming to a stop and the only flights which then operated between China and India were the government owned Air India operated to Wuhan, the epicentre of the pandemic to rescue Indians and bring them back to Delhi. Geopolitics became the major driver since then, starting with Galwan and until Operation Sindoor where the Prime Minister just stopped short of listing out the three countries which supported Pakistan. The same geopolitics came into play, this time in an opposite manner when India and China had sudden high level meetings translating into one more announcement on the resumption of flights, which this time is more realistic.
Pre-COVID, Air India and IndiGo flew between India and China, with Air India flying to Shanghai and IndiGo operating to Chengdu and Guangzhou. This was five years ago, both the airlines as well as the route dynamics have changed since then.
However, the start of flight will not be immediate and here are the five reasons why it won’t be immediate.
- Airport slots
Airports slots work on historicity and seasonality. It takes time to negotiate slots with both the origin and destination airport, especially at times which help get feeder traffic for the flight. With IndiGo now having widebody operations from Mumbai to Europe, and Air India having a bigger hub at Delhi than what it had in 2020, the requirements are different than five years ago.
- Aircraft assignment
Both Air India and IndiGo are reeling under aircraft shortage, thanks to the supply chain issues. However, there is more to it. Air India has scaled down its operations on international routes post the crash of AI171 at Ahmedabad in June and IndiGo still has about 40 grounded planes due to issues with Pratt & Whitney. With flight times which engage one aircraft a day, both the airlines will have to plan to assign their aircraft before making the initial moves.
- Catering and Ground handling
With the routes being non-operational for extended periods, the catering and ground handling contracts would have long expired for the airlines and while they would have certainly started informal negotiations over the last few months with indications of resumption of flights, a formal signing and setup does take a minimum time.
- Crew hotel tie-ups and more
The longer flying times for these flights mean that the crew has a layover and there has to be a dedicated deal with hotels often termed the “crew hotel”. Similar to other contracts like catering and ground handling, these things would have informally started but would take a minimum time to be signed and ready.
- Pilot training
Pilot regulations merit procedures like “route checks” and more and are periodic in nature and hence would be done recurrently, which has a lead time. This is especially important in case of China where a pilot who has flown to or overflown China will always come back with a story of how the Chinese use meters as a unit for altitude while we use feet (and so does most of the western world).
Will the return to China be successful and how soon will the flights start? Type in your guess.
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