The Delhi – Mumbai route has often made it to the top 10 busiest domestic routes in the world. Last year, OAG ranked it at number nine by capacity. A market like India which is back on the growth path, has two large airline groups and a population whose purchasing power is increasing with every passing month – the capacity beyond the top most routes is an eye opener on many counts.
Here is the look at the top 15 domestic routes in India, as of early March 2024
*Analysis excludes alliance air, star air and smaller carriers. Data basis flights available for sale on booking engines for second week of March (March 15th taken as the median date) as on 25th January 2024
There is a clear power law in Indian aviation with the top three (the golden triangle between Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru) heads and shoulders above other city pairs and indeed the Number ONE route of Mumbai Delhi being far ahead of the 2nd or 3rd route. If one considers eight metros including Pune and Ahmedabad, only one route is not a metro-metro route – Delhi to Srinagar. Delhi to Srinagar in offseason is at #12 and typically is in the top ten in the peak summer season. Eight of the top 15 routes have Delhi as origin or destination and six involve Mumbai, again showing the disproportionate impact these two cities have on domestic aviation.
Competitive dynamics of the top five city pairs
- Delhi to Mumbai (56 daily flights each way) – this high frequency high capacity sector leads the domestic charts with the Air India led group offering 29 daily services each way and Indigo offering 20 daily services. Air India Express has no presence in this sector – so the entire Air India group offering is premium. This is also the sector with the highest capacity aircraft deployed. All 20 Indigo flights are on the A321neo (220+ seats) while 2 Air India frequencies are on the 777 wide body aircraft and a further 7 frequencies each way (3 from Air India and 4 on Vistara) are on the A321. Air India is in the pole position as a group in terms of frequency. The dynamic to watch in early 2025 will be how this evolves as both Delhi and Mumbai get their additional airport (Jewar and Navi Mumbai respectively) – will the existing airports see lower frequencies if airlines shift some of their flights to the new airports or will see this sector grow further
- Mumbai to Bengaluru (39 daily flights each way) – this is the only route in the top 10 where there is a significant 3rd player other than Indigo and the Air India group – namely Akasa which has seven daily frequencies each way on this prestige route. Indigo has 15 daily frequencies (11 on the A321neo) and Air India group has 16 daily frequencies. It will be interesting to see what impact the Navi Mumbai airport has on this sector. Interestingly, Vistara operates one frequency with the all economy aircraft.
- Delhi to Bengaluru (38 daily flights each way) – this sector is also a keen contest between Indigo (15 daily frequencies) and Air India group (19 daily frequencies including 2 from Air India express). Again a high capacity aircraft deployed route with all 15 Indigo frequencies and five Air India group frequencies on the Airbus A321 aircraft. This sector should see frequency growth as Delhi’s new 4th runway gets commissioned (Bengaluru has lesser constraints) and one can foresee Akasa and possibly Air India express expanding their footprint on this sector.
- Delhi to Hyderabad – again a strong duopoly on this route with Indigo leading with 11 daily frequencies each way and the Tata group with 10 daily frequencies. Air India express has no presence on this route and possibly that could change as they take on more aircraft as well as with the capacity enhancement at Delhi airport, especially when Air India Express is expanding rapidly at Hyderabad.
- Delhi to Pune – Akasa has recently announced its entry into this keenly contested market that also has severe capacity constraints at Pune airport. Air India group is the frequency leader with 12 daily flights while Indigo has 9 daily services on this sector.
Bonus insights
- Goa if looked at as one integrated destination as opposed to 2 airports would qualify for two top 10 spots (Mumbai to Goa at rank 6 and Delhi to Goa at rank 7)
- The busiest Interstate route for a long time used to be Chennai to Coimbatore. However, with Indigo reducing services on that route, that crown now goes eastward to the Kolkata to Bagdogra route.
Four Trends to watch for
- Navi Mumbai and Jewar airport will fundamentally change the calculus of these top city pairs. Will they bring in additional capacity or will they cannibalise existing frequencies between these city pairs. Will Indigo for instance chop some Mumbai-Delhi existing airport frequencies in favour of some frequencies going to Jewar and others to Navi Mumbai airport. Or will there be further growth in total frequencies between these 2 large markets
- The impact of Indigo’s fleet groundings – while these top 15 routes have been completely spared the impact of Indigo’s cuts so far, could there be an impact further down the road
- Headroom to expand at Delhi starting summer 24 – how will this impact Akasa and Air India express in particular and their position on the top routes
- Consolidation and further expansion of the Air India group network – Given that there are sizeable overlaps between the Vistara and Air India schedules particularly on top routes, it will be interesting to watch how the Air India group evolves on top metro routes in terms of frequencies offered
About the author : This guest contributor is an aviation enthusiast whose day job is in consumer goods. A frequent flyer (1300 + flights logged) and a data geek with a love for analysing airline networks and their evolution. On X (Formerly Twitter) and other platforms as @BOMLHR
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